イシイ　リョウマ   石井　竜馬    所属   追手門学院大学  国際学部 国際学科    職種   教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2025/09/30
形態種別	論文
査読	査読あり
標題	Eighty-Year Rhythms in Historical Development: A Transcontinental Analysis of Japan, Europe, and America from Medieval Feudalism to Modern Capitalism
執筆形態	単著
掲載誌名	政治経済史学会誌
掲載区分	国内
巻・号・頁	(669号)
著者・共著者	石井　竜馬
概要	The idea that history may contain certain repeating patterns—or what some might call its “rhythms”—has long drawn scholarly attention. These are not merely about separate events, but about forms that suggest deeper social and intellectual movements. In this paper, I wish to consider the hypothesis that large historical changes tend to appear roughly every eighty years. To examine this, I take up examples from Japan, Europe, and America, following developments from the decline of medieval feudalism to the beginnings of modern capitalism. It should be noted that existing theories on historical cycles are already well known. One may think, for instance, of Kondratieff’s long-wave theory, or the generational model of Strauss and Howe’s “Fourth Turning.” Yet, in my view, these explanations have often remained too bound to Western contexts, and at times their speculative character has made broad application difficult. What I would like to attempt here is a somewhat different path: by adopting the eighty-year cycle as a guiding perspective, I try to compare shifts in governance, ideology, and economic structure not only within a single region but across wider spaces of Eurasia as well as the Atlantic world. The main purpose of this study can be explained in three steps. First, it tries to examine whether the so‑called eighty‑year rhythm can function as a meaningful tool for historical analysis. Here I place Japan’s Confucian-style statecraft—especially during the Edo period (1603–1868) and the subsequent Meiji reforms—side by side with European developments of roughly the same era, such as the Westphalian state system (1648), the Enlightenment reforms, and the Industrial Revolution. Second, the paper hopes to contribute to global intellectual history by bringing non‑Western governance models into the discussion. In particular, Japan’s Baku‑han system and the ideas of Kokugaku are situated within the wider narratives of modernization, which have until now often been written mainly from Western perspectives. Third, I suggest that the eighty‑year rhythm may also have some predictive potential. This point is connected to the problem of generational memory: the lived memories of one age tend to fade into more abstract collective memory within about three generations (roughly 60 to 90 years). When this forgetting occurs, the ground is prepared for rupture and for the creation of new systems. To avoid the “so-called eighty-year cycle approach”, which risks being dismissed as a mere popular theory, this study instead provides a comprehensive analysis of established historical perspectives. In order to ensure academic significance, particular attention is paid to the requirements regarding methodology and structure.