オバタ　ツネシ   Obata Tsuneshi   小畑　経史    所属   追手門学院大学  理工学部 数理・データサイエンス学科    職種   教授
言語種別	英語
発行・発表の年月	2022/12
形態種別	国内学術誌（First author）
査読	査読あり
標題	Analysis and visualization of team performances of football games
執筆形態	代表編著
掲載誌名	Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science
掲載区分	国外
出版社・発行元	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
巻・号・頁	5(2),pp.885-898
担当区分	筆頭著者,責任著者
著者・共著者	Tsuneshi Obata,Shizue Izumi
概要	Abstract It is well known that the number of goals in a football game follows a Poisson distribution very well. Therefore, the intensity parameters of Poisson distributions, followed by the number of goals gained/lost by a team, can be regarded as the indices of the offensive/defensive performance of the team. Teams belonging to a professional football league have many games throughout the season. The performances of such teams should be considered not to be constant throughout the season. A Poisson regression model with varying coefficients is proposed to analyze and visualize the time-varying performance indices of football teams. It is also applicable to estimating the performances up to the middle of a season, and estimated performances can be used to predict the future game’s outcome probabilities. These methods are demonstrated with the data of the Japanese professional football league.
DOI	10.1007/s42081-022-00173-z
ISSN	2520-8756/2520-8764
Put Code(ORCID)	117166140
PermalinkURL	https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s42081-022-00173-z.pdf
researchmap用URL	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42081-022-00173-z/fulltext.html